京川 发表于 2012-01-17
16 条评论
今天股市创09年以来的最大涨幅，我把上涨因素归为最重要的两点：
- 货币政策将放宽 — 市场会有更多的钱进来。
- 政府救市即将开始
今天中国证券报透露，千亿地方养老金将会很快入市，国家统计局也宣布，去年第四季度GDP为8.9%，是2009年以来首次低于9%，货币宽松政策一触即发。江西铜业和中国铝业下午纷纷涨停，最大券商中信证券也大涨6.9%。最终上证综指上涨92.18点，升幅为4.18%，创09年以来最大涨幅。
因素
由于第四季度经济放缓，预计国家很可能在近期施行宽松货币政策，最直接的做法就是降低存款准备金，使银行有更多的放贷金额支持企业。最近证监会一系列举措也表明积极支持股市的态度，最有利于股市的就是有可能在近期推出直接有利于股市的政策举措（像以往减少印花税等就是一种）。
背景
国家总理温家宝要求重振股市信心
中国成为2011年全球15大市场中表现最差的股市之一，上证综指去年下跌33%，截至到2012年1月6日，上海市场的股票平均市盈率只有8.9倍，为历史最低。温家宝总理上周表示要重振股市信心，他建议新股发行应该改革，并且分红额度也应该大幅上升，这些都刺激证券管理部门对股市麻痹的神经。
五大利好
- 千亿养老金将在第一季度入市
- 证监会将出台直接利于股市的政策
- 国际版暂缓 – 目前没有时间表，2012年不会出台了
- 银行存款准备金降低，甚至利率降低 – 准备金有可能在年前下调一次
- 中国最近新批14家QFII（境外投资者）- 预计将于年后入市
建议
有着这么多的利好因素，怎么能不看好中国股市2012年的前景呢。
建议关注国企背景股票，这些都是社保，养老资金优先投资的对象。金融，券商类也是货币宽松，股市上升的收益对象。拉动内需依然是2012年重点之一，民用消费类，白酒，家电，将会是收益最大行业。从目前来看，一些股票的动态市盈率只有个位数，如果股价翻番，市盈率不过有十几倍，其中机会多多。
16 条评论
救市，救市
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